A potential upset for every playoff contender in 2025

Let's be real: upsets don't matter as much in a 12-team playoff. Just look at last season's national title game. Notre Dame losing to what turned out to be a five-loss Northern Illinois would've been game over in any other system. Ohio State dropping a second game –let alone to a Michigan team they were almost 20-point favorites over– would've meant the same. Instead, the expanded playoff gave them each a second (or third) life, and both made the most of it. In an expanded playoff era, we simply can't view upsets with same lens that we used to. That doesn't mean the upset is dead in college football, though!

Alabama's stunning fall at Vanderbilt derailed their playoff hopes. Miami could've afforded losing to Syracuse if they hadn't already dropped the Georgia Tech game. The same can be said for Ole Miss' stinker against Kentucky, plus Kansas taking out both BYU and Colorado. The idea of upsets changing the landscape of the season is the same as it ever was- we just have assume that one of them by itself isn't enough to take a team out of the race anymore.

The more I dig into what's to come in the 2025, the more excited I get at the potential of a new batch of upsets turning into classic playoff race moments we'll remember just like Vanderbilt/Alabama. With that in mind, I came up with one potential upset for every playoff contender this season 👇

(I used ESPN's post-Spring rankings as a baseline guide here - so please don't yell at me if your team isn't included.)

Penn State

• at Michigan State - November 15

Penn State's getting a ton of love this offseason, which has me convinced they'll drop at least one game they shouldn't. A late-season stumble to what I think will be a Michigan State squad who finds their footing in Jonathan Smith's second season would fit the bill.

Texas

• Arkansas - November 22

Arkansas was the most unpredictable team in the country last season, and I don't think that'll change in 2025. They can beat or lose to anyone on any given week. This is a classic trap game spot, with Texas coming off a trip to Georgia the week before, and a date with hated rival Texas A&M ahead. Don't forget: the Hogs played it close against the Longhorns last year.

Alabama

• at Florida State - August 30

It'd be too easy to pick their October 4 date with Vanderbilt after what happened last year. The Noles are coming off such a disastrous year that beating the Tide –even at home– would be startling way to begin the season.

Clemson

at Boston College - October 11

Clemson may lose their opener to LSU, or at South Carolina in the regular season finale. Other than that, I feel pretty confident they'll take care of business in their other ten matchups. Maybe Bill O'Brien has something up his sleeve when they travel to Chestnut Hill, though.

Ohio State

• at Wisconsin - October 18

Everyone will see the road game at Purdue on November 8 and rightfully get images of previous Buckeye losses in West Lafayette. They're too much of an unknown in Barry Odom's first season for me to pick them here, however. I'll go with a trip to Madison, which always has potential peril.

Wisconsin's underwhelmed in Luke Fickell's two seasons. Getting back to what's worked for them in the past may be exactly what they need to turn things around. This game is sandwiched between Ohio State's visit to what should be at least a 4-2 Illinois squad, and a bye week before a high-profile clash with Penn State.

Louisville

• Virginia - October 4

Tony Elliott's Cavaliers have a habit of giving ranked teams a headache on the road. In 2023, the Hoos led No. 11 Louisville on the road with seven minutes left before falling 31-24. They also shocked No. 10 North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Last year, they walked out of Pittsburgh with a 24-19 win over the No. 18 Panthers. Virginia's gonna snatch someone's chain again in 2025, and it just might be Jeff Brohm's.