Hot Seat Rankings: The Deserves to be Fired-O-Meter

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Editors Note: I traveled to the Ohio State-USC game this past weekend and didn't catch much beyond that game, so there isn't a Ten Takeaways column this week. My recap of what I saw in LA is in Bulletpoints:

Bulletpoints: USC

Thoughts on Ohio State's 30-18 loss at USC.

Two Stripes with Colton DenningColton Denning

For those of you who don't watch the NHL: The "Deserve to Win-O-Meter" is a tool from the popular hockey advanced stats website Money Puck. The meter works by simulating all of the individual expected goals in a game, and shows each team's chance of winning a particular game had it been re-enacted 1000 times, but with both teams having exactly equal goaltending. In essence, it's a way for online hockey fans to cope about goaltending being "luck" when their team loses. I'm bringing the meter to this week's hot seat rankings - except without the all the advanced stats. It's time to find out what exact percentage the nation's most embattled coaches deserve to be fired as we head into November.

THE METER IS FINALLY BROKEN

Mike Norvell

Norvell's meter was redlining on 100% for the better part of two years, and Florida State finally couldn't deny it anymore after their loss to Clemson. It's easy to point this out in hindsight, but it does feel like Norvell could never find a way to recover from FSU's playoff exclusion in 2023.

HOT SEAT GAME OF THE WEEK

With any luck, we'll get a proper sequel to the classic stinker these two blessed us with when they last met in 2024:

THE RANKINGS

1. Tim Albin - Charlotte (1-7) (Last week: 1)

Deserves to be fired percentage: 100%

Albin not getting fired after Charlotte's disastrous overtime loss to Tulane is one of the biggest surprises of the week. How exactly is losing in OT to a team you were 8.5-point underdogs to 'disastrous?' Well, the 49ers blew a ten point lead with ten minutes left, highlighted by unsuccessfully faking a punt coming out the the two-minute warning:

If that weren't bad enough - how about the defense giving up the tying TD in the final seconds of regulation? When they got to overtime, Albin got baited into using his only timeout on fourth-and-goal, which Charlotte followed up by jumping offside to move the ball inside the one, then allowing a QB sneak TD:

To top it all off, the 49ers offense had four shots inside the five to tie (or potentially win) the game, and couldn't score:

That's the kind of loss that's tough for any team to bounce back from - let alone one with a head coach on a seat as hot as Albin's. He's gone if they lose ugly –and maybe even in any fashion– to UAB on Saturday.

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2. Bryant Vincent - Louisiana Monroe (1-7) (Last week: 3)

Deserves to be fired percentage: 100%

I'll give Vincent credit. This is a guy who still clearly believes in what he's doing, even after a 35-21 loss dropped Louisiana Monroe to 1-7:

I just don't think anyone else associated with ULM shares his optimism:

3. Scotty Walden - UTEP (1-7) (Last week: 7)

Deserves to be fired percentage: 100%

Everyone understands how hard it is to win at UTEP, especially in the portal/NIL era. That doesn't excuse Walden's 6-26 overall record, or the fact that the Miners have been outscored by a 40-9 average in their seven losses. UTEP scored on a 57-yard run their first play from scrimmage, then put up 181 total yards and no points on their next 11 drives in Saturday's 31-7 loss at North Dakota State. Miners Athletic Director Jim Senter cheffed up a delicious bowl of word salad when asked about Walden's status on Tuesday:

4. Greg Schiano - Rutgers (2-6) (Last week: 5)

Deserves to be fired percentage: 100%

I was about to say, "At least Rutgers put up a good fight against Michigan," until I realized that everyone on the Wolverines' schedule (except for UTEP) has put up a good fight against them. With starting QB Dylan Lonergan and star WR KJ Duff's status up in the air this week, I don't know how much fight they'll have in the tank against Wisconsin.

5. Bill O'Brien - Boston College (4-4) (Last week: 10)

Deserves to be fired percentage: 85%

I said last week that beating one of Duke/Florida State over the following two games was essential to O'Brien keeping his job into 2027. Well, the Duke part of that equation went about as poorly as you could've drawn it up. BC got hammered 47-2, with their lone points from blocked extra point in the first quarter. In a weird way, Saturday's game against the Seminoles is more of a must-win now than it was before FSU fired Norvell. BC's bowl eligibility is likely on the line, as is O'Brien's employment.

6. Deion Sanders - Colorado (3-5) (Last week: 6)