2026 College Football Head Coach Hot Seat Tiers

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Welcome to the fourth annual 2StripesCPD hot seat tiers column! Remember that I'm not an actual reporter with inside information, which means I can't be held accountable or liable for anything you're about to read!

Tier one: The most fired man in America

• Mike Norvell - Florida State

I'll be honest: I like the headspace that Norvell is operating in right now. He made it clear at ACC media days that he doesn't think he's coaching for his job, and that he doesn't "fear failure." I wouldn't fear it either if my failure had a $50+ million buyout attached to it.

Tier 1.5: The clown show

• Bill Belichick - North Carolina

Belichick's first season in Chapel Hill was a disaster on every level. The on-field product stunk, his Gen Z girlfriend helped make them a joke off it, and the school put out a statement supporting him before we even hit mid-October. It's almost impossible to imagine things going worse in 2026.....except for that Belichick's right hand/General Manager Mike Lombardi just got placed on paid administrative leave due to an HR complaint. Gridiron genius, indeed.

Enjoy watching this train wreck while it lasts. It's a once-in-a-generation coaching mess, even by college football standards.

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Tier Two: #OpenToWork candidates

This tier is the true backbone of 2026's hot seat chatter.

• Luke Fickell - Wisconsin

A $25 million buyout is the only thing that saved Fickell after he was responsible for the first consecutive losing seasons at Wisconsin since 1991/1992. It'd be easy to put him in the same category as Mike Norvell, but unlike Norvell –and many other coaches on the hot seat– Fickell has a clear path to saving himself.

Wisconsin avoids Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and Michigan in Big Ten play. They do face Notre Dame in their season opener and USC in October, but everything else on their schedule is winnable, at worst. If Fickell's portal additions are merely "good," that should be enough to get him to 2027.

• Shane Beamer - South Carolina

I just want you to remember that this is a real quote from last November:

• Derek Mason - Middle Tennessee

Winning the final two games of 2025 was enough to earn Mason a third season at MTSU, despite being 6-18 overall and 4-12 in C-USA play. With road games against Marshall, Jacksonville State, and Kansas all before mid-October, Mason's first two home games vs. Murray State and Nevada are must-wins. If that seems like a low bar to clear, just remember that the Blue Raiders got hammered in their 2025 opener by FCS Austin Peay.

• Scott Satterfield - Cincinnati

There's no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati's legal team is working overtime to find a way to connect Satterfield to Brendan Sorsby's gambling scandal - just in case the Bearcats' season gets off to a rough start.

• Dell McGee - Georgia State

Of McGee's 20 losses at Georgia State, only six have been within one score. Of McGee's four wins at Georgia State, two are against FCS Murray State (1-11 last year) and Chatanooga (7-5 in 2024).

• Dave Aranda - Baylor

Aranda made it to 2026 for the same reason Luke Fickell did: Baylor didn't want to pay his buyout, despite intense scrutiny from their fanbase. He at least gets a chance to make an early statement in their season opener against an unknown Auburn squad in Atlanta, then two should-be wins against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech. What will define whether Aranda can save himself again is how the Bears fare in Big 12 play. Their conference opener vs. Colorado is one of the most important early hot-seat games across the country.

• Mike Locksley - Maryland

Consecutive 4-8 seasons have 2026 at make-or-break status for Locksley. Maryland has their QB in place with Malik Washington, and at least avoid Oregon and Indiana in conference play. If you're looking for a game early in the season that has strong potential to send a fanbase over the edge, it's Maryland hosting Virginia Tech and James Franklin on September 19.

• Billy Napier - James Madison

My bad - muscle memory from the past two seasons of hot seat rankings took over for a second. You're safe, Billy!

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Tier 2.5: What just happened with Brian Kelly and James Franklin showed us that anything is possible

The 12-team playoff has been a positive for coaches because it's given them another avenue to save their jobs (and hit their contract bonuses). On the flipside, missing it means even more now when expectations are high than it did in the four-team format. I highly doubt either of the two coaches in this tier get fired in the next four months, but you could've said the same for Kelly and Franklin last year.

• Lincoln Riley - USC

Lincoln Riley has just about everything he could ask for in his fifth season at USC. A veteran QB leading an experienced team. The deepest set of trenches in his tenure. A schedule that provides two potential statement wins at home (Ohio State, Oregon) and no Notre Dame. The pressure and expectations aren't just coming from the outside, either. Even Riley admitted that now is the time for the Trojans to win big:

Whether they can actually do it is a different story. So is the massive buyout that makes firing Riley feel impossible on paper.

• Kalen DeBoer - Alabama

DeBoer just signed an extension through 2033 and is fresh off a season where Alabama won their first playoff game since 2021. He's sitting on a subzero seat in a normal program. Alabama isn't normal. He's not on the hot seat, but the impossibly high bar of success in Tuscaloosa means his temperature can skyrocket faster than anyone's.

Tier three: Guys who need wins now

Self-explanatory.

• Bill O'Brien - Boston College

Things went as poorly as they could have for Boston College in 2025 (2-10), completely erasing a 7-6 mark in O'Brien's debut. The main culprit –among others– for BC's descent was a defense that allowed almost 35 points per game against 11 FBS opponents. O'Brien's solution to his defensive woes was hiring veteran defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who hasn't coached a good unit since at least 2019. Games against Cincinnati (road), Rutgers, and Virginia Tech in the first four weeks leave BOB as a strong candidate to be near the top of the hot seat rankings by October.

• Jay Sawvel - Wyoming

Look, I'm not a college football insider. I have no idea what the actual temperature on Sawvel is among Wyoming fans. I do know that the Cowboys wasted a great defense last year, though, and are 7-17 in his two seasons. I think Sawvel's leash is longer than most coaches in this tier, but going 3-9/4-8 again won't cut it. A season-opening Border War matchup with rival Colorado State (and new coach Jim Mora Jr.) is as important a week one game as any in the country when it comes to job status.

• Jeff Choate - Nevada

Nevada's had brief flashes during Choate's two seasons in Reno - they just haven't turned them into consistent wins. The odds of it happening this season look low with Western Kentucky, North Dakota State (road), UCLA (road), New Mexico, Hawai'i, UNLV (road), and reigning FCS National Champion Montana State all on the schedule.

• Tim Albin - Charlotte

Albin dipping on Ohio for Charlotte was the most curious coaching decision of the 2024-25 cycle. It looked even worse after the 49ers got dump-trucked in nearly every game and finished 1-11 last season. Albin didn't suddenly forget how to coach –he was 33-19 with a MAC title in four seasons at Ohio– but they were so terrible in every facet that he deserves to be in this tier. My guess is that they'll still stink, yet show just enough for Albin to get a third season.

• Phil Longo - Sam Houston

Sam Houston went from 10-3 in 2024 to 2-10 in Longo's debut, which included an 0-8 start. The Bearkats scored fewer than 20 points in six games, and didn't hit 30 once. That's bad for any team, let alone one led by a guy who's whole resume is almost 30 years of being an offensive coordinator. This was a lousy hire when Sam Houston made it, and one that they'd be wise to get out of ASAP.

• Tony Sanchez - New Mexico State

Sanchez is one of a few coaches on this list where you have to add a pinch of salt to their record (7-17) because of how difficult their job is. NMSU improved by a win last year (3-9 to 4-8) and was a much better overall team than 2024's. A similar record with continued underlying improvement should earn him a third year.

• Scotty Walden - UTEP

Walden donating $150,000 to the program this offseason should tell you where UTEP is at in the NIL era. You can't question that level of commitment, or Walden's desire to win. Unfortunately, a 5-19 record through two seasons is a 5-19 record through two seasons.

• Jeff Lebby - Mississippi State

Flip three close losses to Tennessee (overtime), Florida, and Texas (overtime) around, and we're talking about 8-5 Mississippi State being one of the best stories of 2025. Unfortunately, we've gotta live in reality. All three were games the Bulldogs fumbled, which strips the fun away from how feisty they were. Lebby has them heading in the right direction, though, and they've got the pieces to be as exciting this season. I just can't shake the feeling that not closing those games –and earning the goodwill that would've come from winning them– might ultimately be what costs Lebby, given Mississippi State's 2026 schedule.

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Uncharted tier: The man on his own island

• Dabo Swinney - Clemson

Dabo's spent the better part of the last three years making sure everyone knows who was responsible for Clemson's rise to elite status in the first place. I don't even blame him for that, and it's made for some tremendous content. He gets his own tier for three reasons:

1) His buyout is $57 million.

2) Regardless of where Clemson's at now, Swinney isn't wrong when he talks about what he did for the program. I'm not saying we're looking at a Bobby Bowden/Florida State situation here, but it's not like there aren't similarities.

3) I'm still at the point where I just don't believe this is a botton Clemson will ever push publicly. If things go bad this season then I'm more inclined to think he retires, steps down/mutually agrees to part ways, or even takes another job.

Tier four: Good luck paying that

AKA this year's Buyout Boyz.

• Matt Rhule - Nebraska

No college football agent has ever put a school in a blender more than Rhule's did to Nebraska when Penn State came calling. With the Huskers sitting a pretty 6-2 at the end of October, Nebraska effectively negotiated against themselves in handing Rhule a two-year contract extension through 2032 that significantly rose his buyout. They then proceeded to lose four of their final five games, had QB Dylan Raiola transfer to Oregon, and now have to play Indiana, Oregon (road), Ohio State, Washington, Iowa (road), and Illinois (road) in Big Ten play. Rhule is 19-19 through three seasons, and probably won't be over .500 by much after 2026. This might be a mess they have to sit in for a minute.

• Deion Sanders - Colorado

Colorado's 2025 season was doomed before it even began thanks to the health issues that prevented Sanders from being around the team. It was far from the only reason the Buffs fell to 3-9, but it set the tone for a year plagued by poor leadership, plus a lack of cohesion amongst the team and the coaching staff.

With Sanders back in the fold this offseason, Colorado's at a crucial spot in his tenure. They hit the portal hard, made what I think might be the best offensive hire of the offseason in OC Brennan Marion, and have enough to get back to a bowl for the second time in three years. If that sounds like a miniscule accomplishment to you, you need to understand the Buffs haven't even done that once in almost 20 years. The reality is that Colorado can't afford for Sanders to not turn it around. The athletic department/donor base isn't exactly flush with cash at the moment, and Sanders' buyout sits at $26 million.

Tier Five: This could heat up quickly