Hot Seat Rankings: The lights are out for Mike Norvell

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The first 2StripesCPD Hot Seat Rankings of 2026 are finally here! As a treat for the beginning of the season, I'm making this week's rankings fully accessible to both the general public and free subscribers. Enjoy!

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HOT SEAT GAME OF THE WEEK

Rutgers and Boston College meet Friday night in a game that goes beyond just the job status of Greg Schiano and Bill O'Brien. This is BC's annual 'Red Bandana' game, and both schools are wearing 9/11 tribute uniforms. Expect an emotionally charged environment that both teams (and coaches) hope can propel them to a win they desperately need early in the season.

THE RANKINGS

1. Mike Norvell - Florida State (1-1)

I'm starting to get the feeling that a higher power doesn't want people watching Mike Norvell's Florida State Seminoles. If throwing the Noles on the CW Network for a week zero game against New Mexico State wasn't enough, the football gods resorted to drastic measures to keep eyeballs away on Monday night. A power outage at Doak Campbell Stadium caused a near-two hour delay in their matchup against SMU - amplifying an already comical and volatile situation in Tallahassee. Here's how their first two games have gone, in case you haven't been paying attention:

New Mexico State

FSU battled for a 34-17 win that was within one score deep into the third quarter. Their defense allowed NMSU to go 10-17 on third downs, while the Doak Campbell crowd repeatedly booed an offense that played out of sync and lacked a true plan of attack. We might be talking about a different result here if the Aggies executed a basic trick play:

SMU

The power outage was a fitting representation for where the Florida State program is at right now. Despite winning the turnover battle 4-0 (I'm not counting the fumble on FSU's final lateral attempt), having more rushing yards, more time of possession and fewer penalties, FSU fell in the final minute, 27-24. If that sounds like a rare feat to pull off, it's because it is:

They don't get any credit for keeping it close against a ranked team, either. Florida State's defense allowed 585 yards (8.7 yards per play!), while the offense finished 2-15 on third downs - both of which came on the same fourth quarter drive. Nearly all of SMU's litany of mistakes were self-inflicted, keeping the game much closer than it actually was. Still, FSU made some plays and was in it until the very end. They might've had a real chance to tie (or win) on their final drive, had Norvell not burned two timeouts in the third quarter. There's nothing that describes Florida State better right now than having to take a timeout on punt return because only ten players are on the field and no one's covering the gunner:

By all accounts, Mike Norvell seems like a good guy. That's why I don't get the feeling his team has quit on him, nor do I think they will. Effort isn't the problem here, though. Florida State simply doesn't have what it takes at any level to save his job. The roster –aside from a handful of legitimate players– is poorly constructed, and even more poorly coached and utilized. The offense looks like an assortment of plays (mostly screens) instead of a thought-out scheme, and the defense is a sieve.

The best thing to happen to Florida State so far this season is being on a bye before they play at Alabama next week. Maybe they utilize that time to craft an offense that doesn't look like a teenager playing CFB27 online, and a defense that can line up properly. Maybe they put it all together and they shock the world again by upsetting the Tide. The more realistic outcome is just as dark as Doak Campbell was for two hours on Monday night. It's time for Florida State's decision-makers to accept the fact that paying $50+ million to Norvell is the only way to begin the process of turning the lights for a once-proud program back on.

2. Greg Schiano - Rutgers (0-1)

I don't think many people had Greg Schiano high on their hot seat boards coming into the season. That alone should tell you how bad Rutgers' stunning beatdown at the hands of UMass was in week zero.

Something I've done (to a fault) in previous seasons of the hot seat rankings is try to keep things measured for coaches who have a long history at a program. In years past, I'd put Schiano further down because of what he's accomplished at Rutgers. Of the 247 games the Scarlet Knights have won over the past 50 seasons, Schiano's teams have produced 99 of them (40%). He dragged Rutgers into the national spotlight in the mid-2000s, produced legitimate pros, then came back to try to do it again. He's responsible for six of the school's seven bowl wins! I'm not letting those past accomplishments blind me from the current reality - especially when people who know way more about the situation than me are reacting like this:

Or this:

That's just the media. Here's how the fanbase feels:

As I mentioned at the top, tonight's Rutgers-Boston College showdown is the most must-win game of the week in terms of job status. The Scarlet Knights are already making a QB change due to injury, and have the distinction of being 3.5-point underdogs to a BC squad who's lost 11 of their last 13. There's no denying that Schiano is the best coach in program history, but we're at the point where the past can't save him now.

3. Bill Belichick - North Carolina (1-0)

North Carolina looked competent in their week zero win over TCU in Ireland, which is about as big a W as the Tar Heels have recorded during Bill Belichick's short tenure. Unfortunately for them, the talk in the days since has been more about the ongoing investigation into the program's alleged off-field debauchery. Naturally, Belichick handled questions about it this week with the same sandpaper attitude he did for two decades in New England:

Belichick's job security will be determined as much by what happens (or has already happened) off the field as on it. We all know where this is heading - it just has to play itself out.

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4. Dave Aranda - Baylor (0-1)

The Hail Mary overtime loss at Colorado, and an agonizingly close defeat to BYU the next week in 2024. One-score falls to Arizona State, TCU, and Houston, plus a for-grabs opener against Auburn in 2025. A potential game-winning two-point conversion that came up just inches short against the Tigers to start 2026:

I say it every year in these rankings: The margins are usually razor thin for most coaches on the hot seat. No one knows that better than Dave Aranda.

5. Bill O'Brien - Boston College (0-1)

I can't think of a more obvious scenario for Bill O'Brien to earn some goodwill from BC faithful than winning tonight's annual 'Red Bandana' game.

On the flipside: I can't think of a more obvious scenario for Bill O'Brien to possibly be out the door by the end of the month than losing tonight's annual 'Red Bandana' game to Greg Schiano.

6. Dabo Swinney - Clemson (0-1)

We've reached the part of Clemson's dynasty crumbling where Georgia Southern players are publicly calling a trip to Death Valley sweet:

Clemson was vaporized at the hands of LSU to an extent you rarely see from even the most lopsided matchups between power conference opponents. LSU had nearly as many first downs (38) as Clemson had rushing yards (40)! Even if LSU ends up being the best team in the country, there's no excuse for Clemson playing as pitiful as they did, in all facets. The Tigers starting the season with a dud is nearing tradition-status at this point. They haven't won a season-opener since 2022, with their four losses coming by an average of 25 points. In what's also become a common occurrence recently, Dabo's already getting prickly with local Clemson media. Do you think it's a "fair question" to ask whether Swinney has any roster construction regrets after a 41-point loss?

2026 Dabo Swinney is 2007 Bobby Bowden - except he's less charming and more of an asshole than Bobby ever was. I can't begin to describe to you how locked in I already am for this next week:

7. Luke Fickell - Wisconsin (0-1)

Wisconsin and Fickell set the bar so low last year that a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame doesn't look all that bad. The Badgers only trailed 13-10 at half, with the Irish's lone touchdown coming from a short field after a questionable review ruling. The Badgers at least showed a pulse, which is more than you can say for the majority of their 2025 performances.

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They aren't close to being on the level of a team like Notre Dame - that much is obvious. I was never going to judge Fickell's initial hot seat status from this game, unless they truly got smoked from start to finish. What I will judge him on is how Wisconsin plays moving forward. They have can't-lose games the next two weeks (Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan) before a trio of Big Ten matchups that will truly start to shape Fickell's fate:

8. Derek Mason - Middle Tennessee (1-0)

A 38-14 win over Murray State to start the season might sound like nothing for Middle Tennessee to celebrate - until you remember the 34-14 loss to Austin Peay that opened up 2025.

9. Shane Beamer - South Carolina (1-0)

Make no mistake: Shane Beamer is a man who knows his seat is scorching. There's no other explanation for him going for two with a trick play in the first half against Kent State:

Beamer ranking ninth is more a product of the block currently being so hot for the coaches ahead of him, rather than his seat being any cooler because of one win. He has one more week of feasting on cupcakes (Towson) before we see if he can be trusted to eat at the adult table against Mississippi State September 19.

10. Dave Doeren - NC State (0-1)

Did you forget about NC State's ugly week zero loss at Virginia? They're the first team where I've ever thought, "Man they probably really needed that bye," and it was only the first week of September.

Situations to monitor

Sonny Dykes - TCU (0-1)

Scott Satterfield - Cincinnati (1-0)

Mike Locksley - Maryland (1-0)

Tim Albin - Charlotte (0-1)

Dell McGee - Georgia State (1-0)

Jay Sawvel - Wyoming (0-1)

Phil Longo - Sam Houston (0-1)

Fran Brown - Syracuse (1-0)

Scotty Walden - UTEP (0-1)