Hot Seat Rankings: "It's Shane Beamer time"- Shane Beamer

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The hot seat rankings are back! So many coaches have already been fired this season that the ones left feel like they're in hot seat purgatory. Let's try to figure out where they all stand before rivalry week, shall we?

ON TO THE RANKINGS!

1. Jonathan Smith - Michigan State (3-7) (Last rankings: 1)

Digesting how a team's season went down the drain usually requires a deep dive. Were there injuries? Are they young? Did they lose a bunch of one-score games? For teams like Michigan State, though, all you have to do is look at their ESPN page:

The Spartans' outlook is bleak right now, no matter how you slice it. They've taken a sizable step back in Smith's second year, don't have much on the way in terms of recruiting, face a brutal schedule next season, and just got put on probation for three years by the NCAA:

NCAA puts Michigan State football on 3 years of probation for recruiting violations under Mel Tucker

The NCAA put Michigan State’s football program on three years of probation and penalized the school $30,000 plus 1.5% of the team’s budget after agreeing former staff members Saeed Khalif and Brandon Jordan under coach Mel Tucker broke rules regarding recruiting inducements and benefits, communicati

AP NewsUpdated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

It's a bit confusing why Jonathan Smith hasn't been fired yet. Maybe it's his reported $32 million buyout, or that MSU brass is just waiting it out until the end of the season. Regardless, it's hard to believe that Smith will be the one cleaning up this mess when the calendar hits December.

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2. Derek Mason - Middle Tennessee (1-9) (Last rankings: 3)

I understand where coaches are coming from when they complain about fans having way less patience than we used to. In the portal era, we expect new hires to turn things around ASAP in ways we never did before when roster construction was more rigid. In turn, that's led to the conventional idea of giving coaches three seasons being shortened to two. DeShaun Foster and Trent Bray both got axed in their second year. Smith and Derek Mason might be next to join them.

Mason is just 4-18 at Middle Tennessee. He's got a 2-12 C-USA record, and is 0-6 this year. The Blue Raiders are in a much worse spot than when he took over, and like Michigan State, don't have any obvious path towards building back up. MTSU is a brutally tough job, but surely they can be better than this, right? A couple weeks ago, I predicted Mason's tenure would end with a loss to Sam Houston on Senior Day. We're about to find out if I'm right:

HOT SEAT GAME OF THE WEEK

3. Mike Norvell - Florida State (5-5) (Last rankings: 2)

I'm approaching how I feel about Mike Norvell's status in a simple manner: his $59 million buyout doesn't matter. Buyouts are a boogeyman-esque talking point of why a guy can't be fired, and I just don't subscribe to it anymore. These situations always play out in one of two ways:

• The school finds the money it always had in the first place, says "screw it," and eats charge. (Jimbo Fisher/Texas A&M)
• The school says, "screw it, we're firing this guy and we'll figure out the rest later," then jumps into an immediate battle (Either legal, or through back channels in the media) over the money. (Brian Kelly/LSU)

If Florida State beats NC State tonight and Florida next week? I feel confident Norvell makes it to 2026, with the caveat that he's on the hottest seat in the country next season. If they go 1-1? I can see them keeping or firing him - especially if the loss is to Florida. If they lose both? He's gone by Monday, and Florida State will figure out the rest later.

4. Dave Aranda - Baylor (5-5) (Last rankings: 7)