Re-visiting my 25 preseason predictions for the 2025 college football season

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Back in late August, I made 25 predictions on how I thought the 2025 season would shake out. Well, 26 if you count the heinous playoff bracket prediction I used as the cover:

Now that the season's over, it's time to sort through the damage and see what I got right (more than you think) and wrong (there are some heinous misses in here). Before we do that, I'd like to welcome everyone who's new here to the site. Just because we don't have games for another seven months doesn't mean the content stops. In fact, we're only getting started here on 2StripesCPD. Between columns, throwback highlight videos, original videos, and more, this is the place for you to be this offseason (and beyond) if you love college football.

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Prediction one: Ohio State repeats

The result:

NARRATOR: They did not turn up the gas when it was time.

Prediction two: Penn State disappoints

The result: I'm only giving myself 80% credit on this one. I wasn't brave enough to stick with my original "Penn State misses the playoff," prediction I had in the first draft of the column. Here's what I said about the Nittany Lions in August:

Last year's offense lived and died with star tight end Tyler Warren, while getting almost nothing from their receivers. [Kaytron] Allen and [Nick] Singleton will do their part on the ground, but Warren's exodus to the NFL puts even more pressure on [Drew] Allar and the new group of portal receivers to step up. I've seen enough of Allar for three years –and in big games– to believe he's hit his ceiling as an acceptable QB and nothing more. Against Ohio State, Oregon, SMU, Boise State, and Notre Dame last year, Allar completed 54% of his passes, with a 6:4 TD:INT ratio that was even only that because Warren bailed him out a few times. Even if the receivers are better, they won't come close to making up for the loss of the all-world play Warren gave them.

This is more or less the same Penn State team from last year, with a few portal adds and minus their best player (Tyler Warren). They'll make the playoff behind a top ten defense and a productive ground game, while losing close-ish games to Ohio State and Oregon because Franklin still can't coach on the margins. (Plus one other loss we'll get to later.)....There are logical reasons to think Penn State can break through this season. What isn't logical is the, "Well, if Ryan Day did it - So can Franklin!" take I've seen regularly for the past five months. If that's your line of thinking, you're in for a very 'Charlie Brown will kick the football this time' scenario with the Nittany Lions. I'm still picking them to make the playoff, but I'm not buying them as a true title contender.

Let this be a lesson in sticking with your gut. Penn State didn't just disappoint - they had arguably the most spectacular implosion of any preseason top-five team in modern college football history. The fallout from it (firing James Franklin and the wild national coaching carousel it led to) will play a major role in shaping the landscape of the sport for the next decade.

Prediction three: Florida State is still a mess

The result: They had me in the first half, I won't lie. The Noles made the strongest opening statement in the country week one by whupping Alabama. By week five, they were 3-0 and ranked eighth nationally. Everything immediately fell apart in ACC play, as they lost a double OT thriller at Virginia, then dropped their next three to fall to 3-4. The problems from 2024 Mike Norvell swore were eradicated re-emerged, leading to another disastrous year full of noise about Norvell's job, and the status of the program in general. An enormous buyout saved Norvell this time. It won't when they actually do fire him eight months from now.

Prediction four: Jimbo Fisher returns to Florida State

The result: I might have to run this one back in next season's predictions. I still believe.

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Prediction five: You realize how unreal last year's Heisman race was when this year's returns to QB talk 24/7

The result: The best Heisman race since Vince Young/Reggie Bush (Travis Hunter/Ashton Jeanty) was followed up by arguably the worst. Don't get me twisted: I'm not saying the players involved weren't Heisman quality, or that Fernando Mendoza wasn't a worthy winner. Mendoza had a fantastic season, a phenomenal story to go along with it, and earned it. The larger problem with this season's Heisman race was about how it was covered, not the players competing for it.

Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, and whatever other major QB you want to name (LaNorris Sellers and Garrett Nussmeier, for example) were thrown down everyone's throats all offseason. The Heisman has been a QB-heavy award for almost 30 years now, but the non-stop coverage of signal callers all offseason pre-destined this year's race to becoming exactly what NFL MVP is (The QB-or-nothing award). When Manning, Klubnik, Sellers, and Nussmeier's seasons went downhill instantly, it created a void of contenders that hadn't received much attention over the prior eight months - outside of Diego Pavia, and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith.

When someone among the new group of hopefuls actually had a Heisman-worthy moment (Mendoza leading Indiana's dramatic comeback win at Penn State) the national conversation was more bickering about its merits as a Heisman Moment™ than just appreciating it for what it was. Vanderbilt (Alabama/Texas) and Notre Dame (Miami/Texas A&M) losing their two biggest games also dealt major blows to Pavia and Jeremiyah Love's campaigns - who finished second and third. It'd be easy to get fooled by the fact that four non-QBs finished in the final top ten of voting. None of them ever had a real shot to win.

I have hope for next year's race. We're unfortunately in for another Spring/Summer of Manning mania, but at least it'll have some merit this time. Non-QB names like Smith, Miami WR Malachi Toney, and Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy will provide a more diverse conversation than 2025's QB fest, thankfully. Let's get a couple defenders in there too, while we're at it. No matter which names pop up, all I ask for in 2026 is a better Heisman race than 2025s.

Prediction six: Utah sends Kyle Whittingham out with a Big 12 title and a playoff appearance

The result: I'm far from the only person who figured this would be Kyle Whittingham's final season at Utah. I just thought it'd be because he called it a career - not that he was taking the Michigan job. The Utes didn't make the Big 12 title or the playoff, but they still ended Whittingham's legendary tenure in Salt Lake on a high note with a 10-2 record. The postgame presser after his final home game makes a lot of sense, in hindsight:

Prediction seven: The teams who finish 13-16 in the final CFP rankings whine for more playoff expansion

The result: I used this one in my 2024 predictions, and I'll continue to use it as a free space every year going forward. I hate the 12-team playoff for a number of reasons, but none more so than it's given two and three-loss teams the license to cry about how persecuted they are. Notre Dame took the fit 2024's excluded teams threw to the next level by opting out of their bowl game entirely after being left out. It was an embarrassing moment for college football –from the sport's most coddled and spoiled child– that they should never be allowed to live down.

On the flipside, I have to give credit to Vanderbilt Head Coach Clark Lea. He's the only person in college football over the past 30 years to publicly act like an adult and take accountability for why his team was left out of a postseason system:

I hope you're ready for when they expand to 16 and teams 17-20 complain even more when they get left out!

Prediction eight: Urban Meyer has to publicly deny interest in the Florida job on Big Noon Kickoff at some point

The result: I can't actually confirm if this ever happened or not. I'm not one of the 75 people who watch Big Noon Kickoff each week.

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Prediction nine: Which obviously means Billy Napier gets fired

The result: It took us a while to get there, but Florida finally made the call they should've made in 2024 and canned Napier in mid-October.

Prediction ten: Which leads to Florida Head Coach Kenny Dillingham

The result: Dillingham didn't ever feel like a real factor in Florida's search. Maybe that's because so much of it was tied to Lane Kiffin. He might've just never been on their radar. Ultimately, the Gators went with Jon Sumrall and Dillingham signed a new deal to stay at Arizona State after (allegedly) being courted by Michigan.

Prediction 11: Iowa beats Penn State, makes the College Football Playoff

The result: Iowa did beat Penn State! It just didn't carry the weight I thought it would when I made the prediction. As ridiculous as predicting Iowa to make the playoff seems, they really were a couple plays away from being in real contention when you look back:

Prediction 12: Cincinnati Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald

The result: Do I get half-credit here for at least calling that someone would hire Pat Fitzgerald? Coming into the season, I was confident that Scott Satterfield would be one of the first head coaches fired. You can imagine how stupid I felt when Cincinnati rebounded from a tough season-opening loss to Nebraska by winning their next seven. They were a legitimate Big 12/playoff contender entering November! Unfortunately, the Bearcats crumbled down the stretch, losing their final four –then their bowl– to finish 7-6. Satterfield kept his job, but enters 2026 on arguably a hotter seat than he did in 2025. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald jumped back into coaching by taking the Michigan State job.

Prediction 13: The College Football Playoff announces it's expanding to 16 teams in 2026