Ten Takeaways: Week Ten
The clock is ticking in Columbus.
For those reading on e-mail: click 'view in browser' to see the full contents of today's post
Ten Takeaways: Week Ten
1. Get ready to learn multiple three-loss playoff teams, buddy
We've had two three-loss teams (2024 Clemson, 2025 Alabama) make the 12-team playoff through its first two years. It's a safe bet that number doubles in its swan song.
Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, BYU, Kentucky, Houston, USC, Arizona, and Iowa are all playoff contenders (or on the outside looking in) to varying degrees. They all also each have two losses, and still might have to play in a conference championship game if things break right. As we saw with Alabama and Ohio State last year, the committee seems willing to give teams a break for conference title losses. (Unless you're in the Big 12!) At least a few of those teams will drop one more game and have to play resume roulette to sneak into the bracket.
The SEC alone might be responsible for two three-loss teams making it. Georgia's the only one with one conference loss, while Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, and Tennessee all have two. Games like Kentucky-Missouri, Texas-LSU, Tennessee-LSU, and Alabama-Auburn all have potential to throw both the conference race and lower seeding into chaos. The SEC has definitely reclaimed their perch as the nation's top conference this season, and it's likely that a few of them will get the benefit of the doubt at the end of the season, based off how the CFP rankings already look.
Even the one-loss teams who appear safe right now (Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia) all have at least one losable game left before we get to conference championship week. What happens if they drop a couple?
Throw in other two/three-loss teams (Oregon, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Ohio State, SMU, Duke, Missouri) who either already have impressive wins, could stack impressive wins over the next three weeks, or sneak into their conference title games via tiebreakers for a shot at an auto-bid? You can see how could get real messy. In all honesty, it's the perfect stage-setter for the introduction of next year's three-loss Big Ten/SEC Postseason Invitational.
Click below if you hate the 24-team playoff as much as I do 👇
2. The CFP gives a middle finger to the fans
Speaking of which! ESPN and the College Football Playoff had a teleconference Monday morning after officially announcing that the three-loss Big Ten/SEC Postseason Invitational will begin next season. CFP Director Rich Clark gave a hell of a quote when asked about the strong contingent of fans against expansion:
Clark not even bothering to pull from the usual, "Vocal minority of fans," quote playbook we so often hear from sports/entertainment/media leadership in these situations speaks volumes. CFP/conference leadership is well aware of just how unpopular expansion to 24 is among the people they call the "lifeblood" of the sport - They just don't care. Ending a response with, "But we decided to move forward with it," after acknowledging the public's disgust with the change is something a streaming service or an airlines CEO says on a quarterly business call when they're about to increase prices.
With expansion official, the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all predictably announced the end of their conference title games after this season. It's something you could see coming from a mile away, but it doesn't make it less painful now that it actually happened. What a tremendous day for ESPN/Disney shareholders, though.
3. Oregon puts Ryan Day on the clock
Nearly two years ago, I wrote that it was time for Ohio State to fire Ryan Day after the Buckeyes' embarrassing 13-10 loss to Michigan:
Colton Denning
Two months later, they were national champions. An expanded playoff gave Ohio State a second chance. A roster on the verge of a full mutiny post-Michigan took advantage of it, saving Day's ass with an all-time four-game run. It's pretty clear that team isn't walking through the door this season after what they put on display in every facet of a 41-28 loss to Oregon.
The Ducks put Day's handpicked NFL coordinators (Arthur Smith, Matt Patricia) in blender, just like USC did a week prior. Ohio State's offense got off to a blistering start (14 points, 174 yards in the first quarter), before gaining just 74 yards on their next eight drives. Star receiver Jeremiah Smith went nearly full two quarters without a target. Defensively, Patricia decided dropping seven and eight in zone coverage against a QB who has struggled against man coverage for years would give Ohio State the best chance to win. Here's how that worked out for him:
Special teams –the most consistent glaring issue of the Day era– was predictably taken advantage of once again. This time, they were responsible for the play that flipped the game. Trailing 14-3 with 2:21 left in the first half, the Ducks executed a well-drawn up fake punt at their own 30:
You won't believe me when I say this, but that's the moment I knew Ohio State was losing. Sure enough, Oregon smelled blood from that moment on. They scored 14 points in the final two minutes of the half, ultimately ripping off 35 consecutive to put the game out of reach early in the fourth quarter. I'd usually say it's unfair to place the outcome of a game on one play. Not this time! Not when it's the play that caused Day to fire special teams coordinator Robby Discher Monday morning, nine months after hiring him.
Every bit of this loss has Day's fingerprints on it, and I think it's one he won't ever fully recover from. Forgive me for playing the world's smallest college football violin, but Ohio State's now lost consecutive regular season games for the first time since 2011. They've clinched (at least) a three-loss season for the first time since that year, as well - with real potential for the first four-loss year since 2004. Unless they catch some huge breaks, this will be their sixth-straight season without a Big Ten title. Most damningly, they're more than likely out of a playoff specifically built for them to comfortably make each season. It's an abject failure of a coaching job, regardless of an injury to the starting quarterback. When Ryan Day eventually either gets fired, or (more likely) leaves because the block is too hot, this is the game people will look back on and say, "that was it."
