Why your team will win the national championship this season (and why they won't)
Everyone has a chance in July.
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It's finally time for 2StripesCPD to dive in to some 2026 season preview content! We're 43 days from week zero, and I'm ready to start making bogus proclamations on everything that awaits us. You'll have to wait a few weeks for my official annual hot seat tiers and season preview to drop, but I thought I'd try something new and kick things off this year by giving you some brief thoughts on all 138 FBS teams. Specifically, why each of them can win the national championship this season (and why they won't). Enjoy!
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Why your team will win the national championship this season (and why they won't)
Air Force
Why they'll win the national championship: An offense that averaged nearly 30 points per game last year produces even more this season.
Why they won't: It's far from a guarantee that the defense that allowed 30 points per game will be much better.
Akron
Why they'll win the national championship: Who doesn't want to see Joe Moorhead's reactions on a national stage?
All-time coach face from Joe Moorhead pic.twitter.com/4V6wgSzmF8
β 2StripesCPD (@2StripesCPD) October 15, 2024
Why they won't: They might as well play roulette when it comes to picking a starting QB.
Alabama
Why they'll win the national championship: For all the talk this offseason about the potential of QB Keelon Russell, Alabama's best asset will be another top-level defense.
Why they won't: Too many 'ifs' offensively. If Russell is actually the superstar some project him as. If last year's bad run game improves dramatically. If WR Ryan Williams cleans up his drops. If a handful of inexperienced players step up and make major impacts. I see the vision for Alabama this year, I just don't trust it.
Appalachian State
Why they'll win the national championship: The Mountaineers had essentially half of their roster hit the portal after Dowell Loggains' first season. That might not be a bad thing, because they made up the majority of the worst App State team since they joined FBS in 2014.
Why they won't: That doesn't mean the new guys are better.
Arizona
Why they'll win the national championship: Forgive me if I'm about to beat this point into the ground, but we've seen the importance of experienced QB play in the expanded playoff era. Noah Fifita is about as seasoned as any in the country.
Why they won't: The Wildcats have a nasty Big 12 draw. They have to play BYU (road), Texas Tech (road), TCU, Utah, Kansas State (road), and Arizona State.
Arizona State
Why they'll win the national championship: Colorado transfer Omarion Miller emerges as the best receiver in the Big 12.
Why they won't: Kenny Dillingham's more than proven his worth with a 22-17 mark through three seasons. This feels like a 7-6 type of year that builds to Big 12 contention again in 2027.
Arkansas
Why they'll win the national championship: Not having the head coach's job status be their main storyline heading into season will at least get them started on the right foot.
Why they won't: They'll have four losses by mid-October.
Arkansas State
Why they'll win the national championship: I'll know the Earth is truly healing if Tennessee fans have to watch Butch Jones make the playoff with Arkansas State.
Why they won't: A third-straight bowl feels likely, but their ceiling is much lower with the loss of QB Jaylen Raynor to Iowa State.
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Army
Why they'll win the national championship: This team feels much closer to the group who went 12-2 and won the American in 2024 than the one who couldn't make key plays in last year's 7-6 finish. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're back on top of the conference.
Why they won't: A random loss to either Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, or Rice keeps them out of the CFP mix.
Auburn
Why they'll win the national championship: Alex Golesh has proof of concept when it comes to turnarounds. He took over a USF program who went 1-11 the year before he arrived and led them to consecutive 7-6 marks, then 9-4 last season. Bringing talented QB Byrum Brown with him to the Plains gives him a great opportunity for drastic improvement in his first year.
Why they won't: Help me figure out what the SEC schedule makers have against Auburn:
Ball State
Why they'll win the national championship: Portal additions along the line on both sides hit and give them an advantage up front in the MAC.
Why they won't: Starting the season with a 55-3-type loss at Ohio State isn't the best way to build confidence for what's to come.
Baylor
Why they'll win the national championship: QB DJ Lagway finally becomes the consistent star he showed flashes of being at Florida.
Why they won't: Dave Aranda's teams run headfirst into a wall nearly every November, and will again:
Boise State
Why they'll win the national championship: Returning experience βalong with the usual talent on their rosterβ makes the Broncos the clear favorite in the new Pac-12. They'll be in the playoff mix if they at least give Oregon a fight to open the season.
Why they won't: A challenging non-conference slate that includes the Ducks (road), Memphis, and last year's MAC champion Western Michigan (road).
Boston College
Why they'll win the national championship: I'm going to make up plenty of pretend reasons why teams can win big throughout this column. I've got no smoke with Boston College or their fans, but I'll pass on this one.
Why they won't: It's 2026 and Bill O'Brien hired Ted Roof as his defensive coordinator.
Bowling Green
Why they'll win the national championship: A 4-8 record doesn't tell the full story of how well Bowling Green played at times in Eddie George's debut. If there's any MAC team I like to make a leap to the top of the conference, it's the Falcons.
Why they won't: Offensive improvement feels likely after only averaging 20.5 points per game last season. It's also not a given with how many new players they have. They might be a year away.
Buffalo
Why they'll win the national championship: The Bulls pulled a nine-win season out of the blue two years ago. Doubt Pete Lembo at your own peril, I guess?
Why they won't: This is a difficult schedule, even by MAC standards. The Bulls face FIU (7-6 last year!) and Penn State on the road in non-conference play, then meet Western Michigan, Toledo (road), and Miami (road) in the MAC.
BYU
Why they'll win the national championship: They finally get a signature win that locks them into the playoff by beating Notre Dame on October 17.
Why they won't: I'm not convinced this offense has enough firepower to go head-to-head with other top teams if they make it to the playoff.
Cal
Why they'll win the national championship: The possibility of Cal having one of the nation's best QBs is real if Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele builds on the star potential he showed as a freshman. The Golden Bears will be a nuisance for anyone in the ACC if he's lighting it up each week.
Why they won't: I feel like Tosh Lupoi's first season as a head coach will come with some serious learning on the job moments that make 2027 the year for a true, "Is Cal back?" watch.
Central Michigan
Why they'll win the national championship: CMU was one of my favorite G6 teams to watch last season, thanks to their aggressive defense. If year one was any indication, Matt Drinkall has them heading in the right direction.
Why they won't: The loss of star DE Michael Heldman βamong other defensive departuresβ means the defense likely won't be able to carry the weight they did last year if the offense struggles.
Charlotte
Why they'll win the national championship: Let's just focus on beating The Citadel week one before we start talking national championship.
Why they won't: Things went so wrong in so many ways during Tim Albin's first season that it clouds how I think they can improve in year two.
Cincinnati
Why they'll win the national championship: One of the best offensive lines in the Big 12.
Why they won't: Scott Satterfield is the head coach.
Clemson
Why they'll win the national championship: Dabo Swinney's attempting to resurrect the offensive excitement of Clemson's 2010s run by bringing back offensive coordinator Chad Morris.
Why they won't: It isn't the 2010s anymore.
Coastal Carolina
Why they'll win the national championship: New Head Coach Ryan Beard brings a truckload of his former Missouri State standouts with him. This should be a pretty seamless transition.
Why they won't: This feels like a team who will play a ton of high-scoring games, with three/four breaking against them.
Colorado
Why they'll win the national championship: I'm all in on the hire of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion. His offense, along with some exciting transfers will put up numbers.
Why they won't: I'll believe this can be an average defense when I see it.
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Colorado State
Why they'll win the national championship: If Jim Mora Jr. could win nine games consecutively at UConn in this era, what's his ceiling at a place like Colorado State?
Why they won't: The idea of this being a top-60/70 offense seems far-fetched.
Delaware
Why they'll win the national championship: Nick Minicucci.
Why they won't: The defensive issues from last year probably won't improve enough to make the Blue Hens serious C-USA contenders.
Duke
Why they'll win the national championship: Say the sentence, "Duke is the reigning ACC champion in football," to yourself. Does "Duke is the national champion in football," really sound that much more ridiculous after what Indiana just did?
Why they won't: It does when Darian Mensah isn't the QB anymore.
East Carolina
Why they'll win the national championship: Blake Harrell almost instantly turned around a program that tanked under Mike Houston. How shocking would it be if they were American Title contenders in his second full season?
Why they won't: You can say this for a lot of teams, but ECU got plundered in the portal.
Eastern Michigan
Why they'll win the national championship: EMU has a stout defense, plus an experienced QB in Noah Kim. That combo could take them a long way in the MAC.
Why they won't: 2022's 9-4 record feels like forever ago. I still love what Chris Creighton's done at EMU, but it's fair to wonder whether he can recapture the magic after three consecutive seasons of slippage.
Florida
Why they'll win the national championship: Not having Billy Napier on their sideline is a step in the right direction towards accomplishing that.
Why they won't: Florida will be a better overall team in 2026, just not by enough to contend in the SEC.
Florida Atlantic
Why they'll win the national championship: Having a QB like Caden Veltkamp is a luxury most G6 teams can't say they have.
Why they won't: Veltkamp sat out Spring ball due to shoulder surgery, which is always dicey for QBs.
Florida International
Why they'll win the national championship: WR Greg Gaines III was a get in the portal. He'll make plenty of big plays in this offense.
Why they won't: If the portal additions up the middle defensively don't hit, they'll have the same problems as last year.
Florida State
Why they'll win the national championship: The closest Florida State will get to the national championship this season is Mike Norvell being on ESPN or TNT's playoff broadcast panel after the Noles fire him in mid-October.
Why they won't: They saw what happened to Florida last year after keeping Billy Napier when they shouldn't have and said, "let's give that a shot."
Fresno State
Why they'll win the national championship: What was already a stout defense in 2025 takes it up a notch.
Why they won't: The QB room looks just as sketchy as it did last year.
Georgia
Why they'll win the national championship: For the same reason they can always win the national championship - they have a top-five roster led by the most accomplished active head coach in the sport.
Why they won't: For the same reason they've fallen short since 2022 - the offense fails to generate enough explosive plays.
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Georgia Southern
Why they'll win the national championship: Clay Helton making a push for the G6 playoff bid while Lincoln Riley potentially loses his job at USC feels like the one far-fetched 2026 story that I not only need, but deserve.
Why they won't: Good luck with this:
Georgia State
Why they'll win the national championship: That's what College Football 27's dynasty mode is for.
Why they won't: The Panthers are 2-20 against FBS opponents in Dell McGee's two seasons. There's not much evidence pointing at an improvement in 2026.
Georgia Tech
Why they'll win the national championship: Despite the players they lost from last year's team, Tech has its identity set in stone under Brent Key. That at least gives them the benefit of the doubt in my eyes when it comes to how the new guys will fit in.
Why they won't: Because of what they lost, I feel like it'll take some time for the new group to excel. I can see them having a tough start, then finishing the season on a hot streak.
Hawai'i
Why they'll win the national championship: I have faith that this year's team is better than the one who went 9-4 last season, in large part because of the offense.
Why they won't: A schedule that features Stanford (road), UNLV, Arizona State (road), and New Mexico gives them some real chances to impress the committee, but also leaves them no room for error.
Houston
Why they'll win the national championship: Call me crazy, but I think Houston might quietly be the most complete team in the Big 12 - outside of Texas Tech.
Why they won't: Three of their toughest Big 12 matchups (Tech, Kansas State, Utah) are all on the road.
Illinois
Why they'll win the national championship: The Illini going 19-7 over the past two years shows that Bret Bielema knows what he's doing. A reset year seems likely, but he's surprised before.
Why they won't: The good news for Illinois is that a "reset" under Bielema probably means still making the postseason.
Indiana
Why they'll win the national championship: Have you watched college football at all the past two years?
Why they won't: The best reason I can give you is that sequels usually don't live up to the original.
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Iowa
Why they'll win the national championship: Few programs have benefitted more from the recent clock rule changes. Iowa should once again be able to drag opposing teams into their style of game.
Why they won't: You know there's trouble brewing for Iowa if Kirk Ferentz is complaining about the new punting rules.
Iowa State
Why they'll win the national championship: New head coach Jimmy Rogers at least has championship pedigree, winning the FCS National Title in 2023 with South Dakota State.
Why they won't: All of last year's roster is now with Matt Campbell at Penn State.
Jacksonville State
Why they'll win the national championship: Because they can just throw it up to 6-8 receiver Deondre Johnson every time they need a play.
Why they won't: One loss, likely either in the Fargodome or at Western Kentucky, derails any national noise the Gamecocks could make.
James Madison
Why they'll win the national championship: James Madison's already shown they can thrive through a coaching transition when they went 21-6 and made the playoff in the two seasons since Curt Cignetti left.
Why they won't: The guy replacing Bob Chesney just spent the past two years living at the top of my hot seat rankings.
Kansas
Why they'll win the national championship: For whatever Andy Kotelnicki's faults were running Penn State's offense the past two years, he got that job by orchestrating some dynamic groups at Kansas. Maybe he can do the same in his return to Lawrence.
Why they won't: The Jayhawks defense has been ugly for a while now, and I don't think that changes in 2026.
Kansas State
Why they'll win the national championship: No Texas Tech, BYU, or Utah on their regular season schedule.
Why they won't: I've seen enough of Avery Johnson to make peace with the fact that he'll always be a frustrating QB who leaves you wanting more.
Kennesaw State
Why they'll win the national championship: How can I tell you that anything's off the table for Kennesaw State when Jerry Mack only needed one season to take them from 2-10 to 10-4 with the C-USA crown on their head?
Why they won't: I don't love what they're working with at QB, and they won't have the benefit of sneaking up on anyone this season.
Kent State
Why they'll win the national championship: Da'Realyst Clark:
Why they won't: National media bias against John Rivers.
Kentucky
Why they'll win the national championship: New head coach Will Stein did about as much as you could ask in trying to revamp his first roster through the portal and give Kentucky the best chance to win right away.
Why they won't: Living in a stacked SEC means a couple teams have to get run over in conference play each year. Kentucky is one of those teams in 2026.
Liberty
Why they'll win the national championship: Jamey Chadwell's history is extensive enough that I'm willing to believe last year's 4-8 record was an anomaly.
Why they won't: Last year's stumble coupled with the rise of both Kennesaw State and Delaware make their path to the top of C-USA much more difficult than it was three years ago.
Louisiana
Why they'll win the national championship: They only brought in a handful of transfers. That means Head Coach Michael Desormeaux has faith in the players he already had being enough to push the Ragin Cajuns closer to the ten wins they achieved in 2024.
Why they won't: Outside of that ten-win campaign, Desormeaux has produced three 6-7 records - last year's team being the worst of the bunch. I'm not sure he's the man for this job.
Louisiana-Monroe
Why they'll win the national championship: I'm still holding out hope that Bryant Vincent can succeed at ULM (as much as you actually can in a job this difficult) based off of 2024 and last season's 3-1 start.
Why they won't: Let's just get to bowl eligibility.
Louisiana Tech
Why they'll win the national championship: Solely to piss me off after I've had Sony Cumbie in the crosshairs of my hot seat rankings for the past two seasons.
Why they won't: A step up in quality from C-USA to the Sun Belt is accompanied by games against LSU (away), Baylor (away) and Army.
Louisville
Why they'll win the national championship: A top RB duo (Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown) plus a havoc-causing defense makes me believe Louisville can get to the ACC Title Game.
Why they won't: Lincoln Kienholz being the starting QB makes me believe the Cardinal's season will result in another successful season that has 'What If?' aftertastes.
LSU
Why they'll win the national championship: For all the shit I talk about Lane Kiffin, I'll give him props for knowing how to run a high-powered offense. LSU will score lots of points, and they're more than talented enough to make the playoff.
Why they won't: The reason I talk so much shit about Kiffin is that he inevitably gets in his own way. It will happen again at some point this season.
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Marshall
Why they'll win the national championship: It took a few years (and a few different schools), but QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson looks like he's found his game at Marshall. He threw for 2,043 yards (17 TD), while also rushing for 660 (6) last season. If they make a jump in Tony Gibson's second season, he'll have played a large role in it.
Why they won't: Road games at Penn State and James Madison look like sure-fire losses.
Maryland
Why they'll win the national championship: Maryland returns almost as much production from last year as anyone in the country, including star QB Malik Washington.
Why they won't: Mike Locksley hasn't won a game in November since 2023:
Memphis
Why they'll win the national championship: Charles Huff proved he could flip a program in just one season when he turned around Southern Miss. He hit the portal even harder when he arrived at Memphis, and I have no doubt they'll be in the American Title mix with what he picked up.
Why they won't: They play arguably the toughest road slate of any G6 team, with games at UNLV, Boise State, Tulane, South Florida, and Navy.
Miami (FL)
Why they'll win the national championship: Miami and Mario Cristobal earned themselves the benefit of the doubt after last year's playoff run. Everything is in place here to win the ACC Title and take another swing at a national championship.
Why they won't: Losing Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor is the defensive equivalent of what I'll say in a bit about Notre Dame losing RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The Canes undoubtedly have guys who will be productive in their place, but I don't know how you instantly replace two players who played such a large role in almost winning the national championship.
Miami (OH)
Why they'll win the national championship: The Redhawks look like they'll be the best team in the MAC, and I won't be surprised if they steal one from either Pitt or Cincinnati in the first three weeks of the season.
Why they won't: In Chuck Martin's 12 years at Miami, the most points they've ever averaged in a season is 28.9 (2021). Martin likes to play conservatively βwhich leads to close gamesβ even when the Redhawks are superior to their opponents. At least one team in the MAC will catch them slipping.
