Hot Seat Rankings: Come fire me, big boy!

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At this time last year, the craziest coaching carousel ever was already in motion. Mike Gundy, Brent Pry, and DeShaun Foster were all given the boot before October. James Franklin, Sam Pittman, Trent Bray, and Hot Seat Rankings legend Trent Dilfer weren't far behind. In contrast, we're almost a month through the 2026 season and haven't had a single firing yet. Does that mean we're in for a much quieter carousel this year? Not in the slightest. Buckle up, because business for Jimmy Sexton and the two other agents who combine to represent all 138 FBS head coaches is about to pick up for real - possibly as soon as Sunday.

HOT SEAT GAME OF THE WEEK 🔥

The first official, "Lose, and you're done," game of the season. I hope Dave Doeren has an adequate end-of-game strategy ready!

THE RANKINGS

1. Mike Norvell - Florida State (1-2) (Last week: 1)

Forget that Florida State lost 50-36 at Alabama. Disregard that they've now dropped ten consecutive road games dating back to the start of the 2024 season. Don't even concern yourself with the fact that they've allowed a combined 77 points, 1,152 yards, and 8.6 yards per play the past two games. Of all the blunders Mike Norvell and his Seminoles have committed over the past month, the most disgraceful is trailing the Crimson Tide 26-21 at halftime:

I joked a couple weeks ago that a higher power was doing everything they could to get people to not watch Florida State. That theory was reinforced after multiple weather delays against Alabama. But after how that game played out post-weather delay, plus what's next for the Noles? I'm starting to think the higher power is the one making the jokes. How else can you explain FSU's opponent tomorrow being Norvell's alma mater?

2. Dave Doeren - NC State (1-2) (Last week: NR)

If you didn't catch this week's Ten Takeaways, here's what I said about Doeren's role in NC State's end-of-game debacle at Vanderbilt:

Meanwhile, Doeren earns at least an equal share of the blame -if not significantly more– for even allowing the possibility of it happening. Why would you ever entertain the idea of trying to run off six seconds on fourth down, backed up into your own endzone? Your genius plan is a rollout to the short side of the field? Line up in shotgun, take a knee, or run out the back of the endzone while killing a couple seconds of clock! You don't have to win the game on this play! Was Doeren truly that fearful of putting the ball back in Vanderbilt's hands for what would either be a lateral-induced kick return or a 70+ yard offensive play? You know a loss is catastrophically bad when it's grouped with, "TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP!"

You and I don't need to be NC State program insiders to know that Doeren is coaching for his job tomorrow against Appalachian State. The phrase, "Can't lose this game," gets thrown around a ton for coaches on the hot seat, but it applies here. I think we see a home crowd atmosphere similar to Virginia Tech right before they fired Brent Pry last year if the Wolfpack struggle in the first half:

3. Bryant Vincent - Louisiana Monroe (0-3) (Last week: NR)

No FBS team has had it worse than Louisiana Monroe since they joined in 1994. In 33 seasons, the Warhawks have finished above .500 just once (8-5 in 2012), played in one bowl (that same season), and have 28 losing campaigns. Three decades of evidence make a compelling case that this is the hardest job in the country. For just a moment, it looked like Bryant Vincent might be the first guy since Todd Berry in the early 2010s to figure out how to win there.

In mid-October 2024, Vincent had the Warhawks flying higher than they'd been in over a decade. A 38-21 win over Southern Miss had them 5-1 heading into a bye, with their only loss to No. 1 Texas. Freshman RB Ahmad Hardy (500 yards, six TD) was blossoming into a bonafide star halfway through the season. For those six games, Vincent looked like the best pound-for-pound hire of that year's coaching cycle. Then, it all fell apart.

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Despite Hardy's blistering second half, the Warhawks dropped their final six games, allowing an average of 37.5 points. No winning season. No bowl appearance. As difficult as that losing streak must've been for ULM fans –as well as Hardy's subsequent transfer to Missouri after the season– there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Warhawks' future with Vincent at the controls based off how things started. Those first six games feel like a lifetime ago because of everything that's happened since.

Vincent was named the school's interim Athletic Director in August 2025 after John Hartwell resigned. He held the role for three months, until they hired SJ Touhy as the full-time AD in late November. I can't say whether Vincent pulling double duty all season affected the on-field product for the Warhawks, but I do know that they threw another good start in the gutter. ULM began 3-1, then lost eight straight, finishing 3-9 with a 1-7 mark in Sun Belt play. It doesn't matter how tough a job is - you can't have losing streaks like that in consecutive seasons and expect a fanbase to not get antsy. Still, I went easy on Vincent in my preseason hot seat tiers:

The bar for Vincent getting a fourth year should be winning a couple games in October/November, not getting run over in conference play, and being within shouting distance of a bowl.

I'm not sure he's making it to October at this point, much less to year four. ULM is 0-3, and it's hard to find more than one game left (Southern Miss) that even looks like a tossup. A week after failing to close a 20-10 third quarter lead against UAB and first-year Coach Alex Mortensen, the Warhawks lost 38-35 to Southeastern Louisiana. It's the Lions' first win against an FBS opponent since 2003. You think any ULM fans are reminiscing about that great start in 2024 right now?

I'm self-aware enough to know I don't understand the game of football even close to the level Bryant Vincent does, and likely never will. I'm not going to sit here on my little college football blog and tell him how to coach. What I am going to do is tell him to be self-aware enough to put his damn phone down after losing Southeastern Louisiana:

In case you're wondering if that's real:

Vincent's problems go beyond just an increasingly lopsided win-loss record. A shockingly low amount of his roster is from Louisiana, which probably plays a major role in the lack of local fan support for the program. He can be as passionate as he wants, or claim that his singular goal is to make ULM better every day. Those words don't exactly hold up when you act like an ass online after you just lost your 11th consecutive game - against an in-state FCS squad, no less.

I rarely rocket coaches up the rankings like this. The only reason Vincent's not No. 1 is because Norvell and Doeren's situations are far more high-profile. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's out on Sunday after a likely thumping by Florida Atlantic.

4. Bill Belichick - North Carolina (2-1) (Last week: 3)

The good news for Belichick and North Carolina is that they went a full week without an off-field scandal making headlines. The bad news is that they couldn't hold a 17-3 lead at Clemson, and made the Tigers' offense look like the Greatest Show on Turf over the final six minutes of a 28-20 loss:

I don't think they need to worry about protecting a lead tomorrow against Notre Dame.

5. Greg Schiano - Rutgers (0-3) (Last week: 2)